The hottest southwest natural rubber futures weekl

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Southwest natural rubber futures weekly report

last week, the natural rubber market continued to decline, but the momentum and space for decline did not continue to fall by the limit as the customary habit of completing multi-channel closed-loop control, but sought bottom support in the way of stop and go. With the deep correction of international crude oil and the strengthening of the yen, the Tokyo market turned around and returned to the consolidation zone. The previous upward breakthrough has become a false breakthrough, and the future market will continue to decline. Moreover, with the arrival of the domestic cut-off period, the pressure on the spot market will be increasing. However, in the medium term, tire enterprises are about to obtain new loan funds in April, and the expanded production capacity last year will be launched again. There may be replenishment of inventory by enterprises' centralized procurement, which will support natural rubber. However, in the long run, the excessive expansion of production capacity may bring devastating disasters to the tire industry in the coming years. Generally speaking, the cut-off period has ended. At present, the focus is on whether the replenishment behavior of tire enterprises can provide sufficient support for natural rubber

first of all, technically speaking, there has been an upward false breakthrough in the Tokyo market, and the future market will continue to seek support. However, affected by the sharp decline of crude oil from $58 to $50 per barrel and the rapid appreciation of the yen against the dollar, after breaking through the seven week consolidation zone, Tokyo rubber immediately turned around and fell back from 152 yen to 142.2 yen per kilogram last week, again falling back to the previous consolidation zone. Technically speaking, this false breakthrough often means a large movement in the opposite direction, and there should be room for decline in the future

secondly, since mid April, domestic rubber has been cut in an all-round way, and the pressure on spot will be heavier and heavier. Over the years, the cut-off period in China began in the middle of December before the year and ended in the middle of April next year. And it is understood that at present, nearly 20000 tons of new rubber have been listed in Hainan, which may bring huge pressure to the futures market. We can also see a clue from the inventory of delivery warehouses in Hainan and Yunnan. Hainan warehouse has increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating that after the listing of new rubber, some rubber began to enter the futures delivery warehouse to participate in futures delivery. Will there be a cruel reality that the inventory and capacity of delivery warehouses will eventually continue to expand in 2005, as in 2004? It can be said that the early cut-off period has ended, and the future price trend will be mainly supported by consumption, and the trend may be quite complex

in addition, from the situation that the tire industry can also let students personally participate in the design practice of virtual instruments, tire enterprises may have a new round of procurement wave in August. It is understood that due to the good demand and high price of radial tires in 2004, most tire enterprises have expanded their production capacity. At present, 56 of the 71 large-scale enterprises have planned to expand production capacity, and the launch of radial tire projects in various regions must have a high demand for rubber. Moreover, April of each year is the season for bank loans, which is no different from providing timely help to enterprises in urgent need of funds. This may cause tire enterprises to purchase a large number of natural rubber to supplement the warehouse, providing support for rubber prices

however, due to the excessive growth of production and capacity, some people expressed concern about the future of tires. According to the prediction of the industry association, the demand for automobile tires in 2005 was about 170million, including 65million exported. However, in 2004, China's tire output has reached 240million, and the situation of oversupply is not optimistic. Moreover, at present, anti-dumping lawsuits against China have begun to appear in some tire export markets, and the future export situation is not optimistic. Therefore, it is optimistic to estimate that the tire industry will face a brutal reshuffle at most years, which is bound to have a far-reaching impact on rubber consumption

to sum up, the deep adjustment of crude oil and the sharp appreciation of the yen have led to a false breakthrough in the Tokyo market. A renewable raw material negotiation area and a new scientific and technological material experience area have also been specially set up, and the support of the yen will continue to be sought next week. With the arrival of the domestic rubber cutting period, the early cut-off period has ended, and the rubber price will be mainly supported by consumption. Although in the short term, tire enterprises may replenish the stock, which may provide some support for the rubber price, in the long run, the excessive expansion of production capacity and the pattern of oversupply will greatly limit the consumption of rubber

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