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Southwest Futures: energy weekly -- short term international crude oil is mainly volatile

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short term international crude oil is mainly volatile

crude oil futures fell sharply on Friday due to the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitics, almost erasing all the gains in the previous trading days of this week. The settlement price of October crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $6.59, or 5.4%, to $114.59/barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract on ICE Futures Exchange fell $6.24 to $113.92/barrel. On Friday, oil prices recorded the largest one-day decline since January 17, 1991, when the decline was $10.56

looking back at the international crude oil market this week, except that the decline of the previous week continued on Monday, the price rose upward from Tuesday to Thursday, especially on Thursday, the increase reached 4.86% compared with the previous trading day. However, the 5.41% decline in the last trading day of this week almost destroyed the rebound trend of crude oil. At present, the main factors affecting crude oil prices are the trend of the US dollar, supply and demand, geopolitics and weather, of which the US dollar plays the most prominent role. The settlement price of the US dollar index against a basket of currencies on Friday was US $77.18, up 0.93%. On Thursday, the decline was 1.07%. This week, the US dollar index fell by 0.47% compared with the settlement price at the end of last week. From the daily chart, we can see that the 5-day and 10 day moving average have a downward trend. In terms of international crude oil, although the one-day decline on Friday reached 5.41%, the overall crude oil settlement price this week increased by 0.64% over the weekend, and the 5-day and 10-day moving average crossed upward, just opposite to the trend of the US dollar index. In his opening speech at the annual meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that officials expected that as commodity prices stabilized, global economic growth slowed down, and inflation expectations were controlled, price pressures would eventually ease. He said that despite the rising inflation level, it is expected that the excellent graphite resources will be allocated to powerful, technological and social enterprises, and the inflationary pressure will be eased. Bernanke's above remarks suggest that he has no intention of raising interest rates

let's look at the supply and demand side. It is expected that the global daily demand for crude oil will increase by 950000 barrels to 87.5 million barrels next year, higher than the prediction of 760000 barrels this year, while the daily demand of OECD member countries will decrease by 290000 barrels to 48.3 million barrels next year, lower than the prediction of 510000 barrels this year. This set of data shows that although high energy costs and economic slowdown have led to a decline in demand in developed countries, the increase in demand in emerging markets is greater than the decrease in the former. China Customs data shows that 7 is within ± 1% of the set value; The monthly import of crude oil was 13.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.02%, and the monthly import of crude oil increased by 8.26% year-on-year to 104 million tons. The data shows that the domestic crude oil import volume has changed from growth to contraction, indicating that the domestic crude oil consumption dependence on the international crude oil demand has decreased, which also reflects that the domestic crude oil demand consumption has decreased, which may constitute a certain suppression effect on the international and domestic crude oil market that has no obvious impact on the unit cost

in terms of fuel oil in Asia, because the tight immediate supply in the region is still worrying, the price rose on Friday, and the cross month price difference narrowed slightly. The price of 180CST fuel oil rose $18 to $685 per ton, and the premium remained stable at about $5.50. The settlement price of the main contract of domestic fuel oil futures was 5010 yuan on Friday, with a one-day increase of 0.6%, which was 9.39% higher than the settlement price at the end of last week. In June this year, the national development and Reform Commission raised the prices of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene respectively. The news stimulated the domestic fuel oil to show its anti falling characteristics relative to the decline of international crude oil, and made Shanghai fuel oil stronger with the rebound of international crude oil

the 90% probability of U.S. interest rate futures is betting that the federal interest rate will remain at 2% on September 16, which was also supported by Bernanke's previous speech. It can be seen that the Fed is most concerned about revitalizing its own economy. Recently, the fall in oil prices caused by the slowdown in global economic growth has helped the United States reduce some inflationary pressure. In the short term, oil prices will rebound due to technical shocks under the influence of favorable factors such as geopolitics or weather conditions; But in the medium and long term, with the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy, the dollar index will gradually stabilize and rise, and the natural crude oil price will fall. Although domestic fuel oil has favorable factors to support the rebound, it is not suitable to sell short when the price of fuel oil in Singapore is still upside down

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